November 2013
22nd November, 4pm
Good news! Those of you who placed the bets on Tuesday were massive winners! Our four-fold accumulator on the World Cup playoffs was a winner. Here are the results:
Romania 1-1 Greece
Croatia 2-0 Iceland
Sweden 2-3 Portugal
France 3-0 Ukraine
Just to recap, our selections for the bet were:
France, Croatia, Sweden/Portugal to draw, Romania/Greece to draw. 22/1.
France, Croatia, Sweden/Portugal to draw, Greece. 24/1
France, Croatia, Portugal, Romania/Greece to draw. 17/1.
France, Croatia, Portugal, Greece. 18/1.
The winning combination was also the most likely of our selections, and consequently was the lowest odds. However, the good news is that this was still an enormous 17/1 winner!
Stay tuned for another bet shortly.
19th November, 11am
Tonight we’ve got a number of cracking international matches. Most importantly, it’s the second leg of the World Cup play-offs, with the games being played to a conclusion tonight. Sweden and France are the stand out pair with work to do, amongst this set of fixures (first leg score in brackets):
Sweden v Portugal (0-1)
France v Ukraine (0-2)
Romania v Greece (1-3)
Croatia v Iceland (0-0)
All four of the home teams would have been satisfied with their work in the first leg, with only underdogs Iceland failing to win. Croatia will also have been happy with that 0-0, and they will be expecting to go through. The other games are all fairly well poised though, and it looks like we’e in for some close matches.
In France and Romania, the hosts will be starting two goals adrift, and the first goal in each game is going to be hugely important. If the away side can nick it in either game they will be perfectly placed to go on to qualify. Let the home team back in the game and it could swing completely.
Finally, Sweden host Portugal trailing 1-0 after Ronaldo’s header in the first game. These two are very well matched and this promises to be a tight encounter. It could be settled by a mistake or a moment of brilliance. Let’s hope it’s the latter, there’s certainly the personnel on the pitch for that to happen!
Given the first leg scores, I do feel there is the scope for a bet here. I think a couple of these games have a very good chance of seeing a home win, and we can potentially cover the other results into a four-fold. I.e. France and Croatia are the two picks we expect to win. Greece I expect to do a job in Romania, they will go there for the 0-0. And finally Portugal will look to score in Sweden, knowing that a result such as 1-1 or 2-2 would suit them just fine. We’re going to cover a couple of the other possible results, all with small stakes, and hopefuly pick up a decent accumulator.
So, our selections and approx prices are:
France, Croatia, Sweden/Portugal to draw, Romania/Greece to draw. 22/1.
France, Croatia, Sweden/Portugal to draw, Greece. 24/1
France, Croatia, Portugal, Romania/Greece to draw. 17/1.
France, Croatia, Portugal, Greece. 18/1.
4 bets that cover all the most likely outcomes. If France and Croatia do the business, I’ll be expecting to collect on this.
As we’ve got 4 bets, we’ll do £2.50 on each, making a tenner stake. Good luck!
Finally today, a quick mention of the other massive match today, the England v Germany friendly. After England lost 2-0 at home to Chile on Friday night they have an immediate chance to put things right against one of their biggest rivals. Prime fodder for a bet normally, but given the experimental nature of the Chile game, and the changes made by both, these sort of friendlies are often best avoided.
On paper, the Germans have the stronger side, but then again, England have been playing well lately (with the full team out anyway). We already know of several changes for the Germans, playmaker Ozil being one of the prime players to miss out. England are set to name a stronger side, but we might see 6 or 7 subs on before the end, and this can really disrupt the game. We’ll avoid it for a bet, and hope that England put on a good show!
Back next week. Enjoy all the action!
13th November, 2pm
A case of close but no cigar in our last outing. We backed Man Utd in the draw no bet market away at Real Sociedad in the Champions League, but came up short after a 0-0 draw. United will be rueing the result as well, having certainly had the chances to win the game. The stand out opportunity was a penalty for Van Persie which he slammed against the post. Possibly justice done after Ashley Youngs theatrics had earned the spot kick in a contencious manner. Still, United had the chances to win the game and now there’s work to do to ensure they get out of the group, when really they should be home and dry.
Final word on this, remember that because we backed United with the draw no bet, we get our stakes refunded.
This week we have another international break in the footbal calendar. This is scheduled in for the World Cup 2014 playoffs, and there are a number of teams with massive games. Perhaps the highlight amongst them sees Portugal take on Sweden, meaning one of the worlds biggest football names will be missing from the World Cup. Shame really, it would have been good to see both Ronaldo and Imbrahimovic strutting their stuff next summer.
For the teams who have already made it to Brazil, there are a couple of friendly matches. England have an interesting couple of games, firstly taking on Chile, before a massive match against the Germans on Tuesday. It might be a friendly, but there’s no love lost between these two, and it promises to be a massive game. We’ll have our take on it early next week, when the next bet of the day will be published.
Enjoy the first round of friendlies, back next week.
5th November, 12pm
Welcome to November’s betting diary. It’s bonfire night and we hope to see some fireworks in the Champions League tonight! (sorry for the cliche, does anyone write about football today without mentioning it?). We had another winning month last month and now we move into the second half of the Champions League group stage, so plenty of betting opportunitites around. Tonight sees both of the Manchester clubs in action, and we’ll start with a quick look at them both.
Man Utd have been progressing quite nicely in Europe, a relatively easy group a relief for Moyes after some of the early Premier League struggles. Having said that, the last few weeks have shown a significant improvement and signs of the typical United cutting edge are starting to appear. Probably not quite championship material, but certainly a little early to write them off. They are away to rock bottom Sociedad tonight who have failed to gain a single point in the group so far. United go into the game knowing a win will put them on 10 points, in pole position to finish top.
Man City have recovered from their pasting by Bayern Munich to sit second in their group, 3 points ahead of tonights opponents CSKA Moscow. Hopefully a game that will pass off without any further word about the crowd, and one that will see City as good as qualified for the next phase. A win would put them 6 points above Moscow with just 2 games left, with the job as good as done.
So where do we look for a bet? Lets start with the prices for the two games:
Real Sociedad 3.05
Draw 3.5
Man Utd 2.54
Man City 1.2
Draw 8
CSKA 21
So the market thinks this is a home banker for City, and a much tougher assignment for United. There’s not much value to be had backing City, so we’re going to bet on the United game.
A win for United at 2.54 has a fair amount of appeal. They played well (particularly in the first half) at Fulham, and go into tonights game knowing that a win would leave them very well placed in the group. News filtering out of the training ground today is that United do have a few injury concerns, and it’s possible that the likely squad rotation has had an impact on the price. So rather than back it outright, lets revert to one of our favourite markets, the Draw No Bet:
Real Sociedad 2.24
Man Utd 1.8
We’ve got the security of money back if it’s a draw, and a decent price if United win. This looks like value to me, lets get involved.
Todays bet:
Real Sociedad v Manchester United, Champions League group match. Tuesday 5th November, 19:45.
Man Utd to win in the DRAW NO BET market. £10 @ 1.8
Enjoy the match!